Getting the right data was difficult, but I've used reasonable sources and estimating techniques to get what data I can. NOTE added January 2006: it turned out that I got one birthdate wrong anyway, see the notes on Stephen Harper below. This election will be about health care, war and defence, and acceptance of refugees and immigrants; the Parliament elected here will be charged with leading us out of a morass of scandals and complicated issues, into a situation of material security. Paul Martin is intelligent and analytical, with a strong temper that may not always serve him; he is concerned about fairness, and has an unconscious desire for career advancement which sometimes affects his behaviour in ways he doesn't understand. His Liberal party is conscious of its role in serving the public, but that image has been tarnished by scandal, and requires a lot of complicated initiatives to maintain; nonetheless, the Liberals are clear on their goals and purpose.
Stephen Harper has a lot of drive and energy, but uses much of it to fight imaginary foes. His Conservative party has a lot of new ideas to communicate; its position against same-sex marriage will become significant. Jack Layton's personality is controlled by tense, conflicting internal emotions. The NDP under his leadership is subject to internal problems with broken promises and bad timing, but will ask imaginative questions and eventually be led away from conflict. Gilles Duceppe is well in touch with his unconscious emotions, but they lead him to sometimes worry about secret plots against him.
In the election itself, I predict a Liberal majority, but narrow enough to be disappointing to them. The Conservatives are badly placed to win but very well-placed to form the official opposition. What the Liberals lose will mostly go to the NDP, and the NDP may also benefit from a possible scandal or blunder on the part of the Conservatives. The BQ is not in a strong position, and Gilles Duceppe may get in trouble over his election promises. Finally, I consider a bunch of extra factors, including a startlingly high incidence of conjunctions between Mars and 2202 Pele among the charts cast for this report.
This project was one of those ones that grow out of control. First I thought it would be cool to analyse the chart of the election itself. Then I thought, hey, why not obtain birth data for the party leaders? When it turned out that I couldn't get birth times for them, I set out to find something relevant for which I could get time data. Then I started asking what-if questions. What if George W. Bush were involved? What if the NDP and BQ formed a coalition? What does Lilith actually mean? What if I used Astrolog's tri-wheel comparison feature? What if I include extra asteroids? What about the Sabian symbols for everyone's Sun?
I've been adding 2202 Pele to all my charts for a while, but it was only when I noticed just how many of these charts had it conjunct to Mars, and calculated the p-value for that, that the scientific side of my brain finally gave up and whimpered in the corner for the rest of the exercise. I would have gone into harmonics, Stephen Harper's love life, and the American election as well, but I wanted to actually have my analysis finished and posted before the election (predictions after the fact don't sell very many copies), so I had to draw the line. Here's the result. Have fun with it.
These links will be repeated in the discussion, but for quick reference, here are all the astrological charts discussed in this report. Each chart will open in a new window.
The "tri-wheel" charts are like synastry charts: they show the planetary positions for a party leader and his leadership, projected into the sky on election night. For each one, the outermost ring of planets, and the house divisions, are the same as for the "election" chart. The innermost ring, and the legend at the side, show the leader's natal planets (that is natal, not progressed natal - I haven't analysed progressed natal planets in this report at all). The middle ring shows the planetary positions from when the leader's leadership was announced.
Ideally, I would have liked precise time and place for the births of all the party leaders and the announcements of their election or selection as leaders of their respective parties. Not all of that data was available, though, in the amount of time I was willing to spend researching it. I found dates but not times of birth for all the party leaders, mostly through Wikipedia. I verified the dates from other sources, such as the CBC profiles of the leaders, which included birth dates when I visited them earlier but seem to have been revised since.
For birthdates with unknown times I have used local astrological noon - that is, Sun conjunct Midheaven - the theory being that since that's the middle of the day, planetary positions will be as close to correct as we can hope for under the circumstances. The lack of birth times basically means that for each of these people I can only get a general reading that would apply to more or less anyone born on that day anywhere in the world. The more detailed and personal information in the house cusps is lost. What's left is still interesting, but maybe not as specific as we might hope for.
Finding times for the announcements of the leaderships was difficult but mostly possible; I searched multiple media sources including the CBC and various Web logs, and estimated based on the times of the earliest reports. In the case of Gilles Duceppe's BQ leadership, which happened before Web archiving of news stories was a general practise, I have just guessed and used local astrological sunset (Sun conjunct Descendant), on the theory that these leadership conventions usually announce their decisions in the evening, at the end of a hard day of debate. I have also used astrological sunset for the election itself - there is no way of knowing when the official announcement will be made, but sunset in Ottawa will be about the time that we'll know the results of the election from exit polls and such.
This isn't actually important, but it's interesting: Note that although the definition of noon is basically well-agreed-upon, "astrological sunset" as I'm defining it is a a bit different from "sunset" defined as an observer on the surface might. For one thing, observers usually count sunset as when the Sun finishes setting, which is a few minutes after the time when the centre of the solar disc crosses the horizon in the middle of the sunset process. Also, atmospheric refraction causes the Sun near the horizon to appear a degree or more above the straight-line direction from the observer to the Sun, so that it remains visible until several minutes after the time it theoretically should have set without taking the atmosphere into account. A really correct calculation of visible sunset would require researching the weather in the time and place in question, possibly also the terrain to figure out whether there were any mountains in the way to change the apparent height of the horizon, and then constructing a model of the atmosphere and ray-tracing on that. It would mean breaking the longstanding astrological tradition of geocentric calculations (basically, measuring things from the centre of the Earth instead of the surface) and I think it would be inappropriate.
The data for George W. Bush is widely circulated on the Web. I've seen an article by John Willner claiming that the 7:26 birth time is incorrect (Willner's exhibited "incorrect" chart says 6:26 because of adjustment for Daylight Saving Time; it's still the same time), but that claim seems to be based on astrological rectification (paraphrase: "He doesn't look like someone with a Leo ascendant, so that must not be his real birth time!") and I don't think second-guessing the data like that is appropriate in the context of Western astrology. Rectification may be a legitimate part of Hindu/Vedic astrology, or whatever personalised tradition Willner has cooked up, but those traditions have different philosophical bases from what I'm doing here.
I would have liked to get similar data for the Green Party of Canada as well as the four official parties, but I couldn't find it online and they didn't answer my email.
The data I used is summarised below and also available for download as a ZIP archive of Astrolog-format files for input to your own astrological software.
|Canadian Federal election||28 June 2004||unpredictable, using local sunset||Ottawa|
|Paul Martin (natal)||28 August 1938||unknown, using local noon||Windsor|
|Paul Martin (leadership)||14 November 2003||21:40 EST +- 20m||Toronto|
|Stephen Harper (natal)||20 April 1959 - ERROR, see below||unknown, using local noon||Toronto|
|Stephen Harper (leadership)||20 March 2004||16:45 EST +- 10m||Toronto|
|Jack Layton (natal)||18 July, 1950||unknown, using local noon||Montreal|
|Jack Layton (leadership)||25 January, 2003||16:35 EST +- 10m||Toronto|
|Gilles Duceppe (natal)||22 July 1947||unknown, using local noon||Montreal|
|Gilles Duceppe (leadership)||15 March 1997||unknown, using local sunset||Montreal|
|George W. Bush (natal)||6 July 1946||7:26 EDT (accuracy unknown)||New Haven, CT, USA|
I'll start by discussing the the chart for the night of the election in general terms without referring to the specific parties; then after discussing each party and its leader, I will come back to the election and discuss how each party relates to this election. As discussed in the "data" section above, I've used sunset in Ottawa as the time for this chart. Planetary positions will be basically correct regardless of place or time of day, but if you disagree with my choice of sunset in Ottawa, then you might want to skip over the discussion related to house cusps, which would change for a different choice.
Lots of people seem to think that the Canadian medical system will be a source of significant issues in this election. Well, looking at the chart, one of the first things I notice is Jupiter (a big, influential planet) in the eighth house (the house of medicine) and Virgo (the sign of all types of systematic activities). The health care system is important; fine. There is also a preponderance of objects in the water signs of Cancer, Scorpio, and Pisces, suggesting that emotions will be important; and the Moon, another emotional indicator, is in Scorpio (the sign of medicine) and the tenth house (the career house). There is a kite formation funnelling energy into Chiron (the wounded healer) and Juno (commitments) in Capricorn and the first house; so in summary, it certainly seems clear that the health care system will indeed be important in this election, and that its importance will show up as something that the public cares about emotionally (water, Moon, etc.), about which the public feels wronged (Chiron), and for which politicians will attempt to boost their careers (Capricorn) by making new (first house) promises (Juno).
But what else is going on here? The Sun is in Cancer - a sign about being of service to others. The asteroid Pallas Athena is closely conjunct to the Sun, or "in combustion" - both also right on the Descendant, but that's an artifact of how I chose the time for the chart. Pallas Athena is a Goddess of home and wisdom but also of war. I interpret its position, just setting as the election completes, as suggesting that this new administration may be a chance for Canada to withdraw from its involvement in global conflicts. The planet Mars, an even more powerful war indicator, has no aspects in this chart but is just sort of free-wheeling in early Leo and the seventh house - the house of committed relationships. Even though there may be a chance for Canada to wisely withdraw from war (Pallas Athena is also "wisdom"), there are commitments (seventh house) for us to play a role (Leo), which cannot be ignored. The closeness of the Pallas Athena/Sun conjunction makes this kind of issue especially explosive.
Explosive issues are also divisive; let's look at Gemini, the sign of divisions. It contains Venus in the fifth house. Venus is on the side of a T-square formation with Uranus and Jupiter; so there is conflict between the plentiful energy of Jupiter (already mentioned as being channelled into the health care system) and the desire of Uranus to break free from authority. One significant issue for the Canadian health care system is the idea of citizens being allowed to purchase their own health care services separate from the government-provided system, and the Jupiter/Uranus opposition highlights the tension caused by that issue. But back to Venus: it is the planet of hearth and home - "homeland security", if you like. Its position in the fifth house (of playing a role) and Gemini (making decisions) suggests to me the issues Canada faces in deciding which refugees and immigrants to accept. The people who express strong views on those topics are often the same ones who talk about private health care; the T-square formation highlights the way tense, angry energy can flow between the two sets of issues.
I mentioned the kite formation pointing into Capricorn. There is another aspect formation for which I don't know a generally accepted name. It consists of two objects in trine to each other and in sextile to a third object midway between them. It's like a kite without a tail, and I'm inclined to call it an "arrowhead". In this chart, there's an arrowhead formation between the Sun/Pallas Athena conjunction and Uranus, driving power into the Moon's North Node. Note that since the South Node is always implicitly opposite the North Node, if we counted the South Node as a separate object it would become the missing tail point for a kite formation; and the Moon is also fairly close (though not within the official orb range) to the point where it would be completing the kite as well. Anyway, in natal astrology the North Node/South Node axis represents a sort of dharmic path for the native to follow in their present lifetime. I would take this formation as describing how the Parliament chosen by this election must bring the country out of the current scandals and concern about health care issues (both Scorpio issues) into a situation of openness and security (Taurus) by serving the people's needs (fourth house).
Paul Martin's Sun is in Virgo, indicating that he is smart and analytical. Mercury is right on top of it (conjunct Sun), so his intelligence and analytical skills are further amplified and linked to his ability to communicate; but since the two objects are so close (Mercury in combustion) his communication may sometimes be overheated or excessive. Mars (power and war) nearby, in late Leo (complicated roles) and opposite retrograde Jupiter (excess) in Aquarius (questions), suggests a powerful temper that sometimes does not serve Martin's own interests; he may especially get upset with people who question him too much. His Chiron is in Cancer, sextile to the Sun/Mercury conjunction, suggesting that he may sometimes feel that he's making sacrifices or hurting himself in the service of others.
So what motivates him? On a personal, internal level, what's emotionally important to Paul Martin is suggested by his Moon, which is in Libra, conjunct Venus and opposite retrograde Saturn in Aries. He thinks that fairness (Libra) is what's most important to him (Moon); for him, fairness is how love and security (Venus) need to be expressed. But he may often feel compelled (Aries) to exert a kind of harsh (retrograde) discipline (Saturn) that may conflict with love and fairness - when he makes budget cuts that seem unfair to certain people or groups, he will feel bad about it but do it anyway because he feels it's necessary.
Paul Martin has the Dark Moon Lilith (not the asteroid 1181 Lilith) in Capricorn, making a T-square formation against the Moon/Venus conjunction and Saturn, and trine to Uranus in Taurus. Lilith represents unconscious motivations, and the things we wish for even if they aren't necessarily good for us; when Paul Martin does something without understanding himself why he does it, it may often be because deep down he craves his own career advancement (Capricorn), even if he knows that his actions conflict (the square is a generally conflicting aspect) with his conscious desires for fairness (Libra) and discipline (Saturn). His need to break free of authority (Uranus), especially on the material level (Taurus) supports (the trine is a supporting aspect) his unconscious drive for career advancement. It would be interesting, although beyond the scope of this report because I have to draw the line somewhere and I don't have the necessary data anyway, to compare Martin's chart against that of Jean Chretien, his political mentor and predecessor.
Let's move on to the chart for Martin's leadership of the Liberal party, This chart is heavy on the right (Western or descending) side - the "plays with others" side. For all that Martin may be a strong personality, this Liberal administration is a team effort. If we believe my time estimate, this leadership was announced just as the Leo cusp was rising - actually less than two minutes of time after the cusp, which is more precision than my data is actually good for. That suggests that the outward first impression of this leadership is that it's about the complicated public services issues of late Cancer resolving into the clear and definite leadership role of early Leo. At the time the Liberals chose Martin as their leader, they had no doubt that what they were doing was recognising the next Prime Minister, who had already long since been chosen for the position. The other candidates were, if anything, there just to legitimise the choice of Martin.
The Sun, representing the more considered second impression, is similarly just past the cusp of the fifth house (also time-sensitive, like the Ascendant), and the fifth house is like a personalised Leo, so the Sun has a similar effect - but, oh no, it's in Scorpio! Scorpio is the sign of sneaky back-room machinations. For all this administration may be aiming for a new, pure image (early Leo on the Ascendant, Sun in the early fifth house), it is stained by and must deal with past and possibly future corruption scandals.
Digging even deeper, the internal view of what's important, how the members of this administration see their own goals: the Moon has just risen, in late Cancer and the twelfth house. The administration's view is that they care about resolving complicated issues (late in the sign) of public services (Cancer), through empathy (twelfth house) with the Canadian people. While we are talking of objects on angles, Pallas Athena (wisdom) is quite near the Midheaven and trine to a bunch of objects in Sagittarius which I'll talk about later; this leadership is good at making wise choices that support its other activities. The administration's unconscious desires (Lilith, in very early Gemini and sextile to the Moon) are for making decisions and choices, but those desires are generally harmonious (the sextile is any easy flow of energy) with their conscious drive for public service. Unlike Paul Martin himself, the Martin-lead caucus will seldom find itself wondering "Why the Hell did we do what we just did?"
Now, down in Sagittarius and the fifth house, there is a sort of extended stellium formation, with five objects spread out across twelve degrees - from earliest to latest we have Mercury, Juno, Vesta, Venus, and Pluto. This configuration is supported by trines from Pallas Athena and sextiles from Neptune, and at the early end the first couple of objects are trine to the Moon as well, but the stellium also draws a tense, conflicting energy from the opposition of Jupiter and Mars (forming a T-square), and that opposition in turn is part of a complicated rectangle formation with the opposition of Saturn and Chiron. Everything is connected to everything else in complicated ways here, and it's impossible to move one thing without affecting a lot of others.
As an attempt at a summary, the Liberal Party's ability to communicate (Mercury) is tied up with its commitments (Juno) and its ability to focus (Vesta) and express love and protection (Venus) while ending or destroying that which needs to be ended or destroyed (Pluto). So, PR will be an issue for this leadership! All these things are supported by the party's wisdom and defence (Pallas Athena) and its imagination and fantasies (Neptune) but there will be conflicts over where the money will come from (Jupiter), general conflict about understanding other people's and groups' positions (Mars, in Pisces), and trouble with internal discipline (Saturn) and self-inflicted wounds (Chiron). This will all be expressed in the party's public role (fifth house) and the programs it initiates (Sagittarius).
PLEASE NOTE: The birthdate I used for Stephen Harper in this analysis was wrong. I got it from Wikipedia and checked it against some other sources, and it seemed credible at the time but it turns out it just wasn't correct. As a result, all the conclusions in here based on Harper's natal chart are a bit suspect. Garbage in, garbage out. I've done some more research and found a reference in a major daily newspaper saying that his birthdate was actually April 30, (not 20); that seems to be the correct date. The actual difference is not as large as one might think, because I didn't use the time of day anyway, and some of the most important things I say about him are based on his outer planets (such as Saturn) anyway. Those don't change with the correct birthdate. But the Sun definitely changes, which has bearing on the comments about the Taurus cusp below, and the inner planets also change. I'm leaving this page up because it's still interesting, but please do take it with a grain of salt. I hope to have a new analysis of Stephen Harper's natal chart posted before the 2006 election.
I don't like treating Sun sign cusps as different from regular Sun signs, but Stephen Harper would be an ideal candidate for that if I approved of the practise. We don't really know what his correct Sun sign should be. The Sun crossed the Taurus cusp at 16:16 EDT on his birthdate, so if he was born before then he'd be an Aries, or if he was born after that time, he'd be a Taurus. If we pretended that my estimated time of astrological noon, 13:16, was exact, then the centre of the Sun would be just 7'20" before the cusp - and since the Sun has a radius of about 15', that means a sizable slice of the solar disc was actually over the line into Taurus anyway even though the centre was officially in Aries. The condition of some part of the Sun being over the line persisted from 10:07 until 22:25 on that day, so the chances are good that it applied to Harper's birth. So to be safe, let's give his Sun sign a general interpretation encompassing both: here's someone whose basic personality is concerned with winning and setting records (Aries) but in a complicated way (late Aries) that is tied up with stubbornness and perseverance (Taurus), with a simple, pure expression (early Taurus). Harper is a competitive person; he wants to win the election and everything else he's involved with, just because winning is everything to him.
Most of Stephen Harper's objects are arranged into two major systems which are in tension against each other. First of all, his Sun is part of a kite formation involving three outer planets - Pluto in Virgo, Saturn in Capricorn, and Neptune in Scorpio, with Neptune at the point of the kite opposite the Sun. His Sun is also supported by harmonious sextiles to Mars and Chiron. Those aspects suggest a lot of energy feeding into and through his basic personality - but the eventual destination, Neptune in Scorpio, suggests that a lot of his power will be directed into the dark and fantastic. His Neptune is also trine to Mars, and that's a very close aspect with an orb of just 4'11" in longitude, and those two planets also happen to be closely parallel with an orb of 8' in latitude, and to make things even worse, Neptune is retrograde, too.
Based on the Sun/Neptune system, I think Stephen Harper may spend a whole lot of his energy on fighting imaginary or illusory enemies. I think of Don Quixote tilting at windmills, but this is even harder for an observer to understand because Harper will tilt at windmills that other people can't even see. To the extent that it is possible to win against non-existent foes, however, Harper will win, and in a way that is helpful to others - his Mars is in a favourable position in Cancer sextile to the Sun and Pluto, and its close trine to Neptune suggests a good flow of energy there.
The second system of objects seems be tied to the asteroid Vesta, associated with focus and rigid self-control. Vesta happens to be the asteroid of sexual abstinence. Harper's Vesta in early Leo is part of a grand trine in early Fire signs, with Mercury in Aries and Jupiter in Sagittarius, and also supported by Ceres in late Scorpio, conjunct Jupiter, and Venus in Gemini and the Moon in Virgo, each sextile and opposite to the members of the grand trine, making a sort of super-kite formation augmented with extra objects. As well as the energies already discussed in the Sun-based system of objects, Stephen Harper has a lot of potential for success coming from his ability to focus (Vesta) with plentiful energy (Jupiter) and his communication skills (Mercury), capacity to love (Venus), nurture (Ceres), and experience emotional motives in general (Moon).
Unfortunately, his Vesta is square to the Sun/Neptune axis, and that's the main link between these two systems of objects. In his life he will feel his tilting-at-windmills desires constantly in conflict with his focused-love desires, and unless he can balance the two, he will have trouble succeeding with either. He is mostly aware of the conflicts already, and presumably dealing with them. His Lilith in Taurus is not aspected to much of anything, so at least he won't find inexplicable unconscious motivations messing up his efforts.
Although Stephen Harper's individual personality may be very interesting from an astrological perspective, he may not have much chance to express it as leader of the Conservative Party, because the chart for his leadership is (like the one for the Martin Liberals, but more so) weighted to the right. Harper was selected as leader with Jupiter rising in Virgo, and prominent Jupiter is generally a very favourable sign for success. True, Jupiter is retrograde, but it's also the only thing retrograde on the chart except the North Node which is always retrograde anyway. This chart also shows a New Moon (Moon conjunct Sun), in very early Aries, underscoring that Harper is a new leader of a new party. Notwithstanding some people's claims that this is really just the Reform party all over again, the Harper Conservatives have to be treated as a new entry in the Canadian political arena. The New Moon conjunction draws power through an arrowhead configuration from Mars and Chiron - this party gets its power from conflict with other parties, and its members' feelings of having been harmed by other parties
The first impression of the party, through the Ascendant, is that it's well-organised and systematic (Virgo). The second impression is that it's about bringing in new ideas and running with them (Sun in Aries), and the Moon conjunct the Sun suggests that from the inside, that's also how the people involved in the party see their goals. Lilith is in Gemini and in the tenth house near the Midheaven, suggesting that deep down on the unconscious level (Lilith), there are in fact some pretty significant (Midheaven) decisions (Gemini) the party will have to make in order to advance itself (tenth house)
This chart's Lilith forms an arrowhead with Neptune and Vesta in Aquarius, driving energy into Mercury in Aries. It's interesting that Neptune and Vesta were so significant in Stephen Harper's own chart; their occurrence in this arrowhead suggests that he will be especially involved in his party's tendency for its unconscious decisions (Lilith in Gemini), and imagination and focus associated with questions (Neptune and Vesta in Aquarius) to drive power into communication of new ideas (Mercury in Aries).
There is another tricky system of aspects, basically an augmented kite, involving Jupiter, Ceres, Juno, the Neptune/Vesta conjunction, Venus, Pallas Athena, and the North Node. I'm not sure quite how to interpret that - it suggests there are issues relating to the party's destiny, wisdom, and ability to love and nurture. Just as a random thought, I wonder (especially because of the strong connection with Juno, the asteroid of marriage and commitments) if it's saying that the party's position against same-sex marriage will become important.
Jack Layton's Sun is in late Cancer, and suggests some interest in serving the common good, but it isn't strongly connected to other objects in his chart. Neither is his Lilith in Taurus (unconscious tendencies towards stubbornness). His Moon is much more strongly placed, in early Virgo at the point of a kite formation supported by Jupiter, Uranus, and Pallas Athena. Here is someone with a powerful emotional image of himself, supported by a lot of energy (Jupiter), wisdom (or belief in his own wisdom - Pallas Athena) and a desire to break free of confining authority (Uranus). Although his emotions are strong, they will sometimes lead him to actions that may seem cold or distant (Virgo) - essentially because of his desire to protect himself from the hurt that can come from excessive empathy with others' problems (Jupiter retrograde in Pisces, opposite the Moon).
Jack Layton's Moon participates in two other aspect formations that overlap with the kite; really, this could be seen as one big complicated formation, but I've chosen to split it up into what seem to me to be the logical parts. The Moon and Vesta support Uranus at the point of an arrowhead; I would say that his emotional image of himself (Moon) and his single-minded focus (Vesta in Taurus) support his need to break free of authority (Uranus) - and to help others break free of authority, because of the Cancer focus on service. But his Moon is also part of a tense, frustrated T-square formation with Jupiter and Ceres. I think his relationship with his mother may have been quite rocky (Ceres is the "mother" asteroid), and that leads to internal friction in his personality even today.
There is more friction visible in the separate arrowhead formation involving Pluto, Chiron, Neptune, and Mars (also 2202 Pele, conjunct Mars as mentioned below). Although those objects are all linked by harmonious aspects to each other, they are harmonious in causing conflict outside the chart. I think that Layton may get quite angry (Mars) when he thinks about the unfair (Neptune and Mars in Libra) illusions (Neptune) that cause people to hurt each other (Chiron in Sagittarius). He may want to play a role in creating laws to solve those problems (Pluto in Leo).
Jack Layton was selected as leader of the NDP with Cancer rising - an emphasis on public service. The Sun was in Aquarius and conjunct Neptune, trine the North Node and Vesta: the basic personality (Sun) of this leadership is destined (North Node) to focus (Vesta) on asking imaginative (Neptune) questions (Aquarius). A lot of energy will be available to that effort, through the opposition with Jupiter. However, digging a little deeper, I notice that the Moon is in Scorpio, conjunct Juno and at the side of a T-square formation with the Sun, Neptune, and Jupiter. Jupiter is retrograde in Leo and the first house, and I'd take that as suggesting a tendency for grandstanding, and domination by larger-than-life personalities; that, and the questions indicated by the Sun, creates tension against the Moon/Juno conjunction. Saturn, also known as Kronos (a marker of time) is opposite Pluto, 2202 Pele, and Venus. Synthesising the Saturn aspects and the Moon aspects, I see problems with internal emotions, promises, and timing. Some NDP members may think the party has made promises to them, and demand fulfilment, at about the same time other members think it's time to start the negotiation on what the promises will be.
Chiron and Mercury are closely conjunct in this chart (orb 12'27"), in Capricorn and the sixth house - this party feels that its career path or plans have been harmed and it will talk a lot about how to deal with that. This conjunction is at the focus of another T-square formation, but the other two points are relatively minor objects: Ceres (nurturing) and Vesta (focus), and I wouldn't put a lot of weight on their aspects. Probably more interesting is the sextile to the Moon/Juno conjunction - hurt feelings about the party's advancement will contribute to the backstabbing and broken promises that will raise issues for the NDP's ability to ask imaginative questions.
Subconsciously, the party will be drawn to set a lot of complicated things in motion in its effort to break free of authority - Lilith in late Aries sextile to Uranus. Finally, Mars in early Sagittarius opposite the North Node (and therefore conjunct the South Node) suggests that although this leadership is coming from a position of conflict, its destiny or direction is to move away from that into the unification of opposites implied by early Gemini.
Gilles Duceppe's chart shows a distinct kite pattern focused on Lilith in Capricorn, supported by Jupiter, Pallas Athena, and the close conjunction (orb 7'36") of retrograde Mercury with Venus, all in Water signs. (One edge of the kite, the Lilith/Pallas Athena sextile, is missing in the Astrolog-generated chart because of default orb settings which I haven't bothered to customise.) Like Paul Martin, Gilles Duceppe has a strong unconscious desire for career advancement - but unlike Martin's, Duceppe's unconscious desire is solidly supported by his conscious emotions and isn't going to raise problems for him. Where Duceppe may have issues is on the axis formed by the close opposition (orb just over one degree) of Chiron in Scorpio and Ceres in Taurus. He may feel that there are secret plots against him, no matter how comfortable and supportive his material position may seem.
The Chiron/Ceres opposition also forms a T-square to Duceppe's Sun, but his Sun is supported at the point of an arrowhead by the Moon, Neptune, and the North Node. Despite his concern over secret plots, others will notice that his feelings, imagination, and destiny are in harmony with his basic personality. Another arrowhead involves Neptune and Mars supporting Pluto and Saturn - all large slow-moving planets except Mars, so this would be a less personal influence affecting many people in Duceppe's generation. It suggests imagination, strength, and accomplishment directed towards support of discipline and the law. One other factor in this chart, which I think is somewhat amusing: there is a close conjunction between Vesta and Uranus in Gemini, opposite Juno. Focus on making decisions about independence, even if against promises. How appropriate to the leader of a separatist party!
When the Bloc Quebecois selected their current leader, Mars was rising conjunct to the North Node in late Virgo. This leadership's destiny is to be fighters, and everyone knows it. The Moon is a major focus of the chart - right on the Midheaven, square to the Sun/Mars opposition (which also makes it a First Quarter Moon), and loosely trine to Chiron and Ceres. That suggests that although much of the Bloc's support is emotionally motivated, there will be friction between their supporters and their basic goals and destiny: sovereignty may be what people think of as what the BQ is all about, but their support under Duceppe's leadership is not actually from sovereigntists.
Also prominent in this chart is a sequence of objects spread out over 23 degrees from late Capricorn most of the way into Aquarius; in order, I see Pallas Athena, Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter, and Ceres. This sequence is roughly in sextile to another sequence of Venus, the Sun, Mercury, and Saturn around the Pisces/Aries cusp. Together, they carry most of the weight of the chart. Vesta is also thrown in between the two sequences. Rather than trying to unravel the individual aspects, I think these objects are best interpreted by noticing that they spread out a whole lot of power of a whole lot of different kinds, basically harmoniously, into what a palm-reader friend of mine calls "the ass end of the Zodiac" - that is, Capricorn, Aquarius, and Pisces, the last three signs. Those are the signs of planners and conquerors, hippies and scientists, and psychics and dreamers: people who work with big ideas below the surface of things. That is the basic role of Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois at this time; it will be expressed in many different ways corresponding to the individual objects.
To get some idea of the specific relationship between each party and leader and the election itself, I've made a tri-wheel comparison chart for each leader showing his own natal planets in the innermost ring, the planets for his leadership in the middle ring, and the sky at sunset on election night in the outermost ring and determining the house divisions. These repeat the information of the previous charts in a form that may make it easier to do comparisons; they're a little hard to read because there's so much data packed into each chart, but at least we can recognise objects on angles, which seem to be especially important for these kinds of time-based questions.
Martin's natal Chiron is on the Descendant for the election and his Sun is in the eighth house along with Mars, Mercury, and Neptune. I'd interpret those as disappointing or hurtful positions. However, his leadership's Sun is in the tenth house, and Mars in the second, both suggesting success and promotion. If a minority government results, what the leadership has in the seventh house (of first partnerships) is the Moon, Saturn, and Ceres - not the greatest basis for a coalition; the leadership's ninth house (of second and later partnerships) is empty. I foresee the Liberals winning a majority, but not doing as well as they had hoped to, and Martin tending to take it personally.
Harper's natal Saturn is on the election's Ascendant, his natal Neptune is on the Midheaven, and his natal Mars is on the election's Descendant. Those are very strong objects and suggest that this election will be very significant for him personally. However, whether those are fortunate objects is another question entirely. I think after a hard-fought campaign (Mars) he may find himself disciplined or corrected (Saturn) and forced to give up the dream of actually winning the election (Neptune). They may suffer some kind of setback near the date of the election, causing them to lose some momentum. I also note that almost all of the Harper leadership's planets will be below the horizon on election night; and the leadership's Saturn will be setting, opposite Harper's natal Saturn. I suggest that the Harper Conservatives will be well positioned to become official opposition in this election, and dispense some of that Saturnine discipline back to the Liberal Party.
Jack Layton's Uranus is on the Descendant of the election night chart; his Jupiter is conjunct the election night Uranus; and his Saturn is conjunct the election night Jupiter. Bearing in mind that mythologically, Uranus was the son of Saturn and inherited power from him, I would suggest that Layton personally will come out ahead from whatever breaking-up happens to the bigger parties. Seats lost by the Liberals may tend to go NDP rather than Conservative, and the NDP may be able to come out ahead from any Conservative blunders or disasters that may befall. Layton's leadership is not as strong as Layton himself, but it does have the Sun, Moon, and Jupiter in angular houses, suggesting again a lot of power coming to the NDP. The NDP are not really positioned to win even the opposition role, but their outlook is basically positive within its limits.
Gilles Duceppe's and his party's positions on election night are not great. His and his leadership's Chiron (conjunct each other, interestingly enough) are near the Midheaven, and Ceres is near the Nadir, but those do not seem to be good indicators for success in the election. The power in the Duceppe leadership (the two sequences of objects I mentioned in my analysis of that chart) shows up in the lower-left quadrant of the comparison chart, which is otherwise thinly populated. I see the party's sovereignty focus hurting them as far as winning seats (party's Sun conjunct election night Vesta: basic identity becoming a focus), and Gilles Duceppe's election promises (election night Juno) coming back to haunt him in future (conjunct his Lilith).
Even one chart potentially contains hundreds of different objects and relationships; if we're going to get into asteroid astrology (one of my interests), there are more than 200,000 asteroids catalogued, roughly 20,000 of which have names, and consideration of aspects and midpoints among them could drive the number of influences into the billions per chart. In this section I'll discuss just a few extra objects and other things I find interesting.
George W. Bush is, of course, not a Canadian politician at all, but I thought I'd include his chart anyway, just because here in Canada we can't help but be affected by US politics, and the chart might shed some light on what's going on down there. The interesting thing about Bush's chart is that my impression from it is much more favourable than my impression of the man himself. Bush has Leo rising (first impression is that he takes positions of power - natural for a politician), but his Sun is in Cancer, suggesting a disarming tendency towards deference and consideration for others. Of course, that lends itself to him being a puppet with others pulling the strings - but his Moon, in Libra conjunct Jupiter, Juno, and Chiron, suggests that he has a genuine commitment to equality, balance, and fairness even if he may not always have the chance to express it. And his Lilith, in Sagittarius sextile Neptune in Libra, and his Uranus, conjunct to his North Node, will drive him to eventually assert himself in a positive way. Finally, I note that he has Venus strongly placed, Ceres (nurturing) in the seventh house, and as mentioned, the Moon conjunct Juno; not really any of my business, but I think he's a good husband, and we're unlikely to see the Bushes dragging their marital issues embarrassingly into the public eye as the Clintons did. I still wouldn't vote for him, but.
While we're talking about the USA, let's consider the asteroid or minor planet 916 America. Here's a table of its position in the charts considered in this report:
|Canadian Federal election||22 Leo 5'11"|
|Paul Martin (natal)||16 Leo 18'27"|
|Paul Martin (leadership)||12 Leo 35'13"|
|Stephen Harper (natal)||21 Pisces 21'42"|
|Stephen Harper (leadership)||28 Cancer 12'3"|
|Jack Layton (natal)||27 Virgo 38'29"|
|Jack Layton (leadership)||6 Pisces 20'5"|
|Gilles Duceppe (natal)||7 Scorpio 42'22"|
|Gilles Duceppe (leadership)||27 Leo 0'56" R|
|George W. Bush (natal)||4 Virgo 45'42"|
|NDP/BQ midpoint||29 Cancer 58'35" R|
In the election night chart, 916 America appears near the end of Leo and the start of the eighth house; I think the US role in this election will simply be to make everyone edgy, concerned about what may be going on secretly in our neighbouring administration. It is square to Uranus in Paul Martin's chart, suggesting he may have a hard time breaking free of American influence, and opposite Neptune, indicating that it may become a focus for the Liberal imagination. Stephen Harper has 916 America in Pisces, and a lot of empathy for the American situation; his leadership has it at the end of Cancer, opposite Chiron, suggesting that they may attempt to heal some rifts between Canada and the USA, but that that effort may harm their party specifically.
Jack Layton's personal chart shows 916 America conjunct Juno and the South Node; he will promise to move away from American influence. The party on his leadership, however, has sympathy for the USA indicated by 916 America in Pisces; it is closely conjunct 2104 Toronto, so that aspect of their position may be especially important to Ontario voters. In Gilles Duceppe's chart, 916 America is conjunct Chiron and 2202 Pele; he may feel hurt by the USA, but as discussed below, he may deal with it in creative, positive ways. His party's 916 America is conjunct Lilith, suggesting that the American influence on them will be expressed subconsciously, below their notice. George W. Bush has 916 America conjunct Mars - appropriate for a US President if we interpret Mars in its positive face as a planet of promotion and success; and the NDP/BQ coalition chart has 916 America retrograde, right on top of Pallas Athena and the Leo cusp - suggesting that dealings with the USA might be linked to issues of national defence by the coalition.
A lot of people seem to think that the province of Ontario, and in particular the city of Toronto, are going to be significant battlegrounds in this election, so I thought it would be fun to look at the position of the asteroid or minor planet 2104 Toronto. Notwithstanding its name, I am inclined to take this object as basically representing the entire province - there wasn't an asteroid named "Ontario" to assume that responsibility. Here's a table of its position in the charts:
|Canadian Federal election||8 Gemini 21'13"|
|Paul Martin (natal)||4 Sagittarius 20'37"|
|Paul Martin (leadership)||18 Aries 23'43.1513 R|
|Stephen Harper (natal)||20 Gemini 16'0"|
|Stephen Harper (leadership)||5 Taurus 49'40"|
|Jack Layton (leadership)||6 Pisces 47'3"|
|Jack Layton (natal)||13 Capricorn 27'41.8249 R|
|Gilles Duceppe (leadership)||10 Pisces 47'27"|
|Gilles Duceppe (natal)||27 Gemini 9'31"|
|George W. Bush (natal)||5 Taurus 53'42"|
|NDP/BQ midpoint||27 Aries 18'35"|
In the election night chart, 2104 Toronto shows up conjunct Venus, in Gemini and the fifth house; I'd take that as confirming that Ontario has a role to play in the decision. Paul Martin's 2104 Toronto is conjunct Juno and Vesta, square to his Sun and Mercury; I think he may spend a lot of energy wooing Ontario voters and making promises to them, but he may have trouble getting his message through. His leadership's 2104 Toronto is retrograde (not a good sign) but on the other hand, strongly placed in the tenth house near the Midheaven - suggesting some election success there, but with struggle. Stephen Harper's natal 2104 Toronto is disconnected from everything else in his chart; even though he was born there, I think he may have trouble connecting with Toronto voters. His leadership, however, has the asteroid very strongly placed, conjunct the North Node and trine to Jupiter. The Harper Conservatives may do quite well in Toronto and Ontario, but it won't be due to Stephen Harper's contribution.
Jack Layton has 2104 Toronto retrograde in Capricorn, with squares to Mars and Neptune. Ontario and Toronto may be important to his career, but he will sometimes find himself at cross-purposes with the people there. He was selected as leader of the NDP with 2104 Toronto closely conjunct 916 America in Pisces, as mentioned above; sympathy (or more correctly empathy) with the people South of the border, and that will be significant to NDP voters in Ontario. In Gilles Duceppe's chart, 2104 Toronto is conjunct Vesta and Uranus; Ontario and Toronto may be the focus of the authority he's trying to break free of. In his leadership's chart, it appears in Pisces, loosely conjunct Vesta and not connected to much else; it contributes to the weight I mentioned of the Duceppe BQ into the abstract, dreamy last three signs of the Zodiac, and (rather surprisingly) it may suggest that the BQ has some nontrivial sympathetic voters in Ontario - maybe the "protest" voters disappointed with all the other official parties. Since the BQ doesn't run candidates outside Quebec, those voters cannot actually vote BQ. Maybe instead they could vote for my hypothetical NDP/BQ coalition; its 2104 Toronto is conjunct Jupiter, at the side of T-square. That suggests there would be a lot of energy for the coalition in Toronto, albeit tense energy with a lot of conflict. Finally, 2104 Toronto is probably not particularly relevant to George W. Bush, but he has it in Taurus and the tenth house, trine to Pallas Athena. He might find Ontario important to his career, and difficult to deal with, if he were a Canadian politician.
I like to include the asteroid or minor planet 2202 Pele in my charts, for personal religious reasons. This body is named after the Hawai'ian fire Goddess Pele. I refer to her as the "Fire of Creation", which is a phrase I got from the book The Phoenix Cards by Susan Sheppard. In astrology, 2202 Pele seems to be another kind of ego or personality indicator especially relevant to a native's contribution to the ongoing process of creating the universe. It often appears reinforcing the positions of bigger objects. Here's where it appears in the charts I did for this report:
|Canadian Federal election||4 Leo 20'34"|
|Paul Martin (natal)||27 Leo 1'51"|
|Paul Martin (leadership)||23 Capricorn 54'35"|
|Stephen Harper (natal)||3 Cancer 13'14"|
|Stephen Harper (leadership)||24 Taurus 58'55"|
|Jack Layton (natal)||20 Libra 12'33"|
|Jack Layton (leadership)||16 Sagittarius 20'29"|
|Gilles Duceppe (natal)||9 Scorpio 49'17"|
|Gilles Duceppe (leadership)||6 Taurus 30'34"|
|George W. Bush (natal)||28 Virgo 39'50"|
|NDP/BQ midpoint||25 Aries 48'10"|
One interesting thing about 2202 Pele is that it appears conjunct Mars in a lot of these charts. Using an orb of five degrees, the conjunction applies to five of the eleven charts: the election night chart; the natal charts of Paul Martin, Stephen Harper, and Jack Layton; and Stephen Harper's leadership chart.
Averaged over the long term, the distance in longitude between Mars and 2202 Pele should be uniformly distributed from -180 to 180 degrees, so assuming a pure chance model the conjunction should appear in one in 36 randomly-chosen charts. The longitude difference changes roughly half a degree per day (often faster or slower because of 2202 Pele's elliptical orbit; that's an average) so the conjunction appears for roughly ten days at a time once in two years, not really correlated with any Earth-based phenomena, and so there shouldn't be an issue of lots of people having the same conjunction just because of being born in the same generation, or at the same Earth-based time of day, or similar. On the other hand, we have an unusual event right now in 2004: because of the way their retrograde cycles work, 2202 Pele and Mars are conjunct much longer than usual this year, all the way from 20 March to 13 August. Of the dates considered here, only the election itself and Stephen Harper's selection as Conservative leader fall within that period.
The probability of the conjunction appearing in at least five out of eleven charts under the pure chance model (the "p-value") is then approximately 6.6 in one million. Considering just the births of the four leaders (which is the context in which I first observed this anomaly), the p-value becomes 84 in one million - the four leaders show a higher fraction with the conjunction, but the small sample size reduces the significance. By itself, these numbers look statistically significant; the standard rule is that a p-value is considered significant if it is less than five percent.
On the other hand, there are many other similarly-unlikely observations we might make about a set of charts having something in common. Given lots of independent unlikely possibilities, it's relatively likely for at least one of them to occur. If there were at least about seven thousand similarly-unlikely things we might observe in the set of eleven charts, then the chance of seeing at least one of them by pure chance would become more than five percent and we'd no longer be able to conclude statistical significance under the standard rules. I think seven thousand is a rather high estimate for how many kinds of unlikely observations would be as surprising as this one, but it's not so high as to be totally implausible. Persons who want to debunk astrological claims have many other ways of explaining away low p-values, too. It might be fun to collect a lot more birth dates of Canadian political figures, and members of the general population as a control group, and run a properly controlled study on it - not that whatever results were found would really convince anyone either way.
But whether the effect is statistically significant or not is beyond the scope of this report. Considering the conjunction in astrological terms, what is its meaning? I would interpret 2202 Pele conjunct Mars as suggesting that for all the charts showing that, success and promotion (the more positive attributes of Mars) are associated with the creative fire - in general terms, these are people for whom and situations where winning is identified with creativity. Seeing it in so many of these charts suggests that it may be a specifically Canadian indicator, although there's no particular symbolic reason why this asteroid (named after a Hawai'ian Goddess) would have a Canadian flavour, and I haven't examined many foreign charts to verify whether it might just be a general political success indicator.
Since Harper's leadership chart is the only one among the leadership charts that displays the conjunction, that may be a favourable sign for the success of the Harper Conservatives in the election. On the other hand, since the conjunction exists for so long this year, it may simply be an artifact of the fact that Harper is a newly-chosen leader. Similarly, Gilles Duceppe, being the only party leader without the conjunction in his natal chart, may not be the leader the BQ needs to succeed this time around - but that gets complicated because the BQ's goal is not to "win" the election in the same take-all-seats way that the other parties are trying to "win", so he may be well suited to lead them to their own goal instead of what the other parties are aiming for.
Let's look at 2202 Pele in Duceppe's charts and the others where it is not conjunct Mars. In Gilles Duceppe's natal chart, 2202 Pele is in Scorpio, about midway between Chiron and Jupiter but not really close enough to either for me to be comfortable calling it conjunct one of them. It is, however, conjunct to 916 America. I think Duceppe's creativity may manifest in his dealings with the USA - especially in complicated negotiations, because Scorpio is the sign of mind games. Looking at his leadership's chart, 2202 Pele appears in Taurus (sign of the body and material things) and the eighth house (house of medicine), loosely opposite Chiron (the wounded healer; orb 5 degrees 14'). The current BQ's creativity may have its most important manifestation in their health policies.
Paul Martin's Liberals have 2202 Pele in the sixth house and Capricorn, opposite the Moon and Ceres. They will exercise creativity in their systematic (sixth house) approach to advancing their position (Capricorn), but there will be tension between that effort and their internal emotional motivations (Moon) and ability to nurture (Ceres). Jack Layton's NDP have 2202 Pele in Sagittarius and the fifth house, conjunct Pluto and Venus and entering into the grand trine with Jupiter and Ceres, but not really opposite Saturn like them because the orb is too big (6 degrees 29'). That's a Fire sign and a Fire house, and a powerful place to find a Fire Goddess. The NDP's creativity will manifest as them having a role (fifth house) in introduction of new initiatives (Sagittarius), especially dealing with love (Venus) and secrets and hidden things (Pluto). I could see future progress on same-sex marriage and government corruption being made by way of NDP Private Member's Bills.
The position of 2202 Pele in the NDP/BQ coalition chart is discussed below, so that leaves only George W. Bush's natal chart. For Bush, 2202 Pele is in the third house (of decision-making) and late Virgo (complicated intellectual understanding), roughly opposite (orb 4 degrees 53') Vesta (focus and denial). It is also sextile to his Saturn in Cancer. I'd say that Bush expresses his creativity through thoughtful decisions, but to do so requires focus and discipline, and (as discussed in the section on him) he may have trouble developing and maintaining that focus.
The Sabian Assembly has an interesting astrological tradition of their own which incorporates a set of 360 "symbols" for the degrees of the Zodiac. The symbols are images with associated keywords generated by a psychic in a series of sessions in 1925. I'm not sure that the symbols really have a whole lot of astrological significance, but there are some wonderfully poetic images among them and so they're usually worth at least glancing at. The Sabian Assembly seems to be linked to the same people, time, and traditions that spawned the New Thought movement, and my family's church is part of New Thought; that may be part of why a lot of the Sabian material feels familiar to me on a low subconscious level.
Here are the Sabian symbols for the Sun's position in each of the charts in this report. Note that the numbers don't match those used elsewhere in this report because the Sabian Assembly numbers the degrees of each sign starting from 1. They seem to be thinking "first degree, second degree, third degree..." instead of "0 degrees and some minutes past the start, 1 degree and some minutes past the start...". The Sun moves just over one degree per day, and so because of the unknown times of many of these charts, these symbols may be wrong. They're nonetheless interesting - especially the bit about bunnies and fairies in the first three rows of the table.
|Canadian Federal election||8 Cancer||"Rabbits dressed in clothes and on parade." (APPROPRIATION)|
|Paul Martin (natal)||5 Virgo||"A man dreaming of fairies." (OUTLOOK)|
|Paul Martin (leadership)||23 Scorpio||"A bunny metamorphosed into a fairy." (TRANSITION)|
|Stephen Harper (natal)||30 Aries||"A duck pond and its brook." (RELIABILITY)|
|Stephen Harper (leadership)||1 Aries||"A woman rises out of water, a seal rises and embraces her." (REALIZATION)|
|Jack Layton (natal)||26 Cancer||"Contentment and happiness in luxury, people reading on davenports." (REPOSE)|
|Jack Layton (leadership)||6 Aquarius||"A performer of a mystery play." (SUBTLETY)|
|Gilles Duceppe (natal)||30 Cancer||"A Daughter of the American Revolution." (INHERITANCE)|
|Gilles Duceppe (leadership)||26 Pisces||"A new moon that divides its influences." (FINESSE)|
|George W. Bush (natal)||14 Cancer||"A very old man facing a vast dark space to the northeast." (SANCTION)|
|NDP/BQ midpoint||1 Pisces||"A public market." (COMMERCE)|
Here's a flight of fancy. Throughout this report I've tried to stick to the astrology and keep my own personal political views out of it, but in actual fact, I do have opinions about this election. If it were up to me to choose (not predict) the result, I would choose to have the winner be a coalition of the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois. When I say that to people, they usually laugh, and then get sort of serious and say, "You know, it actually could work out pretty well..." I think it would. I think the ways those two parties are crazy are exactly the things they would have to compromise on in their coalition, and what would be left would actually be pretty good, certainly better than any of the four major parties alone. Anyway, here's a chart for the time/space midpoint of the Layton NDP leadership and the Duceppe BQ leadership. If the two parties did form a coalition government, this chart describes how it might work. It may be just as well that I don't have birth times for these two men, or I'd be doing a chart for a same-sex marriage between them...
This chart shows a Full Moon (Sun and Moon in opposition), and in fact that opposition forms the axis of a kite formation, feeding power into the Sun from the Moon, Jupiter, and Lilith and Vesta. The Moon is also quite near the Ascendant, and the Sun is correspondingly near the Descendant. Overall, this configuration suggests that despite its composite nature, the coalition would develop a strong and distinct personality of its own (Sun), supported by plentiful energy (Jupiter), emotion (Moon), and focus and unconscious desires (Vesta and Lilith). People's first impressions (Ascendant), the coalition's basic personality (Sun), its emotional priorities seen from the inside (Moon), and its unconscious motivations (Lilith) would all be more or less in harmony.
However, Jupiter's plentiful energy is also the focus of a T-square formation, square to Pallas Athena, the North Node/South Node axis, Venus, Neptune, and Juno. Note that Venus and Neptune are the only really major objects among those, but the others all add up. The coalition would find sources of tension in the desire to make wise decisions in times of war (Pallas Athena), issues of its long-term destiny (the Nodes), fantasy and illusions (Neptune), and love and commitments (Venus and Juno - possibly flagging same-sex marriage). As mentioned above, 2202 Pele is near the end of Aries in this chart, near Jupiter and supporting it with creative fire.
The Juno/Venus/South Node/Neptune stellium is especially noteworthy; Juno is at the end of Capricorn but the others are in Aquarius. This coalition would get deeply involved in creating answers to the questions surrounding love and commitment, and if those questions have problematic answers as far as getting and keeping public support, then they could cause trouble for the coalition's tremendous initial momentum indicated by Jupiter in early Taurus. Juno being square to 2202 Pele suggests that although the coalition has a lot of creative drive, it may have a hard time applying that energy to commitments in particular.
There's another significant opposition between Mars, which is in the eighth house and Aries, and retrograde Ceres, in the second house and Libra. The disputes that would endanger this coalition's ability to stay together would be conflict over who would have power (Mars) over health-care (eighth house) initiatives (Aries) - especially when the desire for universal access to nurture (Ceres) all Canadians equitably (Libra), causes difficulty (retrograde) with balancing the budget (second house, and Libra again).
I mentioned 2202 Pele already. Also in this chart are 916 America in Gemini and the tenth house, square to Mercury, and 2104 Toronto retrograde in Leo and the twelfth house, conjunct the Ascendant and tied into the tail of the kite. The former suggests that this coalition government might experience challenges in communicating with the government of the USA, but that communication would nonetheless be important to the coalition's ongoing success. The latter suggests that the coalition would have a lot of sympathy with people in Ontario, who would support and be supported by it.
That completes my analysis. It has certainly been influenced by my non-astrological knowledge of the election, but I've tried to as much as possible write down what I see in the charts in preference to what I hear in the news. My prediction of who will win is probably about the same as what I would have predicted by non-astrological means, but my opinion is that this isn't really a tough election to call anyway, and there's a lot of interesting stuff going on other than just who wins. Maybe this report can point out some of that stuff.
The people who pay me to do computer science recently cut the amount they pay me for that, and I'm looking around semi-seriously for ways to use my hobbies to enhance my income. ("The weird turn pro!") This report is partly intended to help test the waters as to whether I could make money writing about astrology; if you like it, say so in the comment form below. Turning pro would involve some non-trivial work, not least of it in fixing up my homemade astrology software to replace packages like Astrolog (used for this report) whose authors don't want them used for commercial purposes; but it might be fun.